5-day short course: Foresight – Horizon-Scanning and Scenarios

The Manchester Institute of Innovation Research (Formerly PREST) are providing a 5-day short course for sponsors and practitioners in foresight called “Foresight – Horizon-Scanning and Scenarios” on 27 June to 1 July, 2011.

Participants will learn how to recognise and interpret possible future changes involving, in particular, social, technological, and environmental changes and their interdependencies. The course is aimed at people whose work is liable to affect the future of business, government or Non-Governmental Organisations.

A provisional outline of the course:

Day 1 – The Mission: how the course is structured to enable participants to influence the future roles their organisations play locally, nationally and globally. the role of foresight in and for a changing world and uncertain future. the origins and various forms taking by foresight in practice, and the resources that are available for practitioners and users. the necessary steps for design and management of foresight exercises of various types.

Day 2 – Model building: how any foresight is dependent on models of one sort or another (not necessarily quantified or simulation approaches). bringing implicit models to the fore, visualising and sharing them. using models to forecast and explore alternatives.

Day 3 – Horizon-scanning: what sorts of information and data do we need to use? How can we organise and structure “raw” intelligence to examine trends, disruptive developments, wild cards, and other features of the future?

Days 4 and 5 – Scenarios: scenarios as mental models varieties of scenario, scenario analysis, and scenario application. how to go about scenario building? how to use scenarios in shaping the future of an organisation?

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