Briefs

 

 

EFP Brief No. 192: Delphi-based Disruptive and Surprising Transformation Scenarios on the Future of Aviation

Our study intends to present disruptive and challenging events, i.e. wildcard scenarios, with a significant impact on the aviation industry. We aim to assist decision and policy makers in preparing for the future and enrich decision making processes on possible courses of action by presenting a robust and reliable decision support system and creating awareness [...]

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EFP Brief No. 191: Transportation & Logistics 2030

The following foresight brief presents the findings of the innovative real-time Delphi study “Transportation and Logistics 2030 Vol. 2” prepared by PricewaterhouseCoopers’ transportation unit and the Supply Chain Management Institute (SMI) at the EBS Business School, Germany. Overall, 104 experts assessed 16 projected futures in terms of probability of occurrence, impact on the transportation and [...]

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EFP Brief No. 190: Agriculture and the Challenges of Energy

Energy in agriculture is all too often seen as a purely cyclical issue whereas it brings more complex challenges in terms of economic stability for agricultural holdings, impacts on the environment and climate, on food supply chains and spatial planning. The present brief describes the main results of a prospective study led by the Centre [...]

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EFP Brief No. 189: Foresight for EU-Russia R&D and Innovation Cooperation

R&D and innovation cooperation between the EU, its member states (MS), the countries associated (AC) to the FP7 and Russia is developing dynamically at the multilateral as well as bilateral levels. In this context and within the framework of the EU-FP7 funded ERA.Net RUS project, a foresight exercise is being implemented. Structural and thematic scenarios [...]

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EFP Brief No. 188: Improving Foresight through Methodological Innovation

We present insights into the design and execution of an international large-scale project on the future of logistics by the year 2025. The basis of our research was an innovative real-time Delphi application. We applied a multi-methodology framework including a real-time Delphi, a futures conference and participatory expert workshops. This allowed for cross-validation and a [...]

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EFP Brief No. 187: Using Foresight to Involve Industry in Innovation Policy

The brief describes the design and implementation of a success scenario workshop used in Malta to allow industry to give a foresight-based input to the design of innovation policy. The exercise drew upon the results of several industry-level studies in the small new EU member state aimed at identifying the drivers and inhibitors of private [...]

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EFP Brief No. 186: Is Technology Still Enough to Change the World?

The EU has a long tradition of legitimating its policies based on its “technical charisma”. The European Commission’s initiatives are justified economically and supported politically through a strong link between science and policy-making. In this framework, forward-looking activities and quantitative models play a critical role, even more so in the field of R&D. It thus [...]

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EFP Brief No. 185: Practical Applications of Foresight Approaches in U.S. Analytical Studies of S&T Futures

Foresight activities at the U.S. National Research Council have a long history (nearly 150 years) and have occurred under various names. They are best known in the form of evidence-based analytical studies of particular scientific, engineering, medical or societal issues that provide not only state-of-the-art snapshots of the underlying science but also analyse future needs [...]

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EFP Brief No. 184: Future Potential of Nanoelectronics in Germany

Nanoelectronics is one of the key enabling technologies to open up new paths for inventing new products and processes and advancing current technology. Potential for Germany as a location for suppliers and manufacturers in nanoelectronics is seen especially in exploiting emerging technology paths in which the current technological position as well as framework conditions for [...]

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EFP Brief No. 183: Prospects of Quantum Key Distribution: Making Data Communication Secure for the Future

The application of the highest information-theoretically secure cryptographic primitives for securing data transmission was long considered unfeasible because of a missing primitive for the distribution of the necessary cryptographic keys between sender and receiver ensuring a comparable level of security. With quantum key distribution (QKD), a technology has been invented that enables the generation and [...]

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